What’s in it for me?

March 12, 2011

you maniacs!

Global temperature

The effects of global warming are visible all over the world, but not all evidently so. For example, the rise in global mean land-ocean surface temperature has been 0.6 degrees Celsius since 1980. But no one experiences the global average temperature directly -it is after all the average over a wide range of temperatures from cold Siberia to the Sahara desert, so in terms of personal experience this fact is meaningless.

One needs to know the context in order to understand what this means. This context is provided by facts such as that this change is roughly twice the global mean temperature change between 1880-1980, that the uncertainty estimate for recent data is 0.1 deg, that temperature reconstructions reveal the current temperature to be unprecedented over at least 1800 years, etc.

Single events

There already have been colossal changes and events in recent years with a clear and obvious impact. There is the incredible drop in arctic ice volume (11,000 cubic km since 1980, with only 4,000 cubic km left on average in sept. 2010, again context is needed). Or the recent flood in Pakistan that affected an area at least the size of England. And other floods, like the flash floods in North-West China (resulting in over a thousand deaths) or the big flood in Australia (which affected 200,000 people). But the link between events like floods and heat waves and global warming is a tricky one, just like the link between smoking and lung cancer in an individual patient: the increase in their occurrence is a solid prediction in a statistical sense, but the story for each individual case is complex. Last year’s heat wave in Russia is a case in point, and may to a large extent be attributable to a `normal’ weather extreme [update Mar 14, 2011: or global warming after all? See here for a compelling argument]. Besides, all this still doesn’t directly touch upon the lives of people here in America -who typically haven’t visited the Arctic recently, let alone twice and know in their hearts that countries like Pakistan don’t really exist. Even the rising global food prices, caused mainly by weather calamities and stirring up mass protests and revolt in the Arab world, such as the revolution in Egypt, have little impact in the U.S. as Americans spend a relatively small fraction of their income on food. Only when global warming and weather start to impact the rental prices here in New York I’m going to be seriously screwed.

Global warming predictions for New York

All this raises a question: what will we experience locally from the global climate change? The simple rule of thumb answer -expect more extreme weather events as the temperature erratically becomes higher and higher- is just that, a rule of thumb. It tells us that the U.S. snowstorms last winter are consistent with and expected from global warming, but the more local you look, to more complicated everything becomes. A very useful resource is the report Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States by the United States Global Change Research Program, available here.

Image from page 109 of "Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States"

When it comes to New York (or the North East coast in general), it tells us the following. First, the past:

Since 1970, the annual average temperature in the Northeast has increased by 2°F [=1.1 deg. Celsius], with winter temperatures rising twice this much. Warming has resulted in many other climate-related changes, including:

  • More frequent days with temperatures above 90°F
  • A longer growing season
  • Increased heavy precipitation
  • Less winter precipitation falling as snow and more as rain
  • Reduced snowpack
  • Earlier breakup of winter ice on lakes and rivers
  • Earlier spring snowmelt resulting in earlier peak river flows
  • Rising sea surface temperatures and sea level

Then, the future:

Over the next several decades, temperatures in the Northeast are projected to rise an additional 2.5 to 4°F in winter and 1.5 to 3.5°F in summer. By mid-century and beyond, however, today’s emissions choices would generate starkly different climate futures; the lower the emissions, the smaller the climatic changes and resulting impacts. By late this century, under a higher emissions scenario:

  • Winters in the Northeast are projected to be much shorter with fewer cold days and more precipitation.
  • The length of the winter snow season would be cut in half across northern New York, Vermont, New
    Hampshire, and Maine, and reduced to a week or two in southern parts of the region.
  • Cities that today experience few days above 100°F each summer would average 20 such days per summer, while certain cities, such as Hartford and Philadelphia, would average nearly 30 days over 100°F.
  • Short-term (one- to three-month) droughts are projected to occur as frequently as once each summer in
    the Catskill and Adirondack Mountains, and across the New England states.
  • Hot summer conditions would arrive three weeks earlier and last three weeks longer into the fall.
  • Sea level in this region is projected to rise more than the global average,

So, what’s in it for me? (sang the N.Y. Indie band the Walkmen in 2004). The bottom line, if you’re planning on doing business or living in NY, you’d better start paying attention:

The densely populated coasts of the Northeast face substantial increases in the extent and frequency of storm surge, coastal flooding, erosion, property damage, and loss of wetlands. New York state alone has more than $2.3 trillion in insured coastal property. Much of this coastline is exceptionally vulnerable to sea-level rise and related impacts. Some major insurers have withdrawn coverage from thousands of homeowners in coastal areas of the Northeast, including New York City.

Rising sea level is projected to increase the frequency and severity of damaging storm surges and flooding. Under a higher emissions scenario, what is now considered a once-in-a-century coastal flood in New York City is projected to occur at least twice as often by mid-century, and 10 times as often (or once per decade on average) by late this century. With a lower emissions scenario, today’s 100-year flood is projected to occur once every 22 years on average by late this century.

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Another mosque in Manhattan

August 27, 2010

While back in the Netherlands the adults are busy negotiating a government coalition, PVV (‘Freedom Party’) political leader and big time winner at the latest Dutch elections Geert Wilders has been booking a trip to New York -To protest the mosque that is planned two blocks from ground zero and has become one of the most successful recent fabricated controversies. Although the PVV doesn’t do facts (see also my previous post on their proposed environmental policy), a lot of context has surfaced over the past weeks, for example in a number of excellent pieces in the New York Times.

The building

Park place, another busy street in lower Manhattan. On this picture some are protesting for freedom of religion immediately in front of nr. 51. Most people are on the picture coincidentally and going about their business. To the immediate left of the building is the Amish market, to the immediate right is a bar. Outside the picture, to the back of photographer are a church and a number of very tall buildings.

When you actually live in Manhattan like I do, it is easy to stroll downtown and see for yourself that, no, the building is not planned on ground zero, but two blocks away. At a planned 15 levels it will be about as high as its direct neighbours. The building between the planned center and the WTC site is at least as high, so the center will not overlook the site either. Only a few paces away, nearby buildings can be found that are a lot higher. Park 51 will not be conspicuous or stand out in any way. What’s more (NY times again):

There have been mosques in that part of Lower Manhattan for many years, one 12 blocks from the trade center, another a mere 4 blocks away. No one got in a lather over those places. Might, then, a four-block gap instead of a two-block gap be acceptable?

Calling it a mosque is also an oversimplification, it is envisioned as a center that includes a prayer room. From the Washington Post:

The stated goal behind building the Muslim center in lower Manhattan is to recapture the spirit of mutual respect between Judaism, Christianity and Islam that existed in Cordoba, Spain, from 700 – 1200 AD. While Europe was trapped in the Dark Ages, marked by bloody religious repression, Cordoba thrived as a commercial and cultural center with what was, for the time, a high level of religious freedom. For example, in the 10th Century, Cordoba became the intellectual capital for Jews worldwide. The stated point of the project is creating a world where Jews, Christians and Muslims connect again in a way that builds mutual understanding and respect.

This stated intent can be found on the website of the Park 51 project:

New York deserves its reputation as a peerless center of arts, culture and ideas. Park51 honors and furthers that tradition, envisioning a community center for all of us, bringing the best of the world to New York City, and New York City’s energy, diversity and aspirations to the world. Park51 will become a model for future institutions, with its inclusive focus, outstanding facilities and dedication to social needs. To realize this mission, Park51 will:

* Uphold respect for the diversity of expression and ideas between all people
* Cultivate and embrace neighborly relations between all New Yorkers, fostering a spirit of civic participation and an awareness of common needs and opportunities
* Encourage open discussion and dialogue on issues of relevance to New Yorkers, Americans and the international reality of our interconnected planet
* Revive the historic Muslim tradition of education, engagement and service, becoming a resource for empowerment and advancement
* Connect New York’s communities to global ideas and trends
* Commit to social justice, dignified human development and spiritual growth for all
* Pursue the development of American Muslim identities, engaging New York’s many and diverse Muslim communities and promoting empowerment and compassion for all
* Build partnerships and relationships with key actors and institutions who share our values, to address shared needs and solve common problems
* Establish a state-of-the-art green facility that will serve as a model and inspiration for sustainable space, helping to advance sustainable living in urban contexts
* Empower our communities with the skills and knowledge they need to advance in their various life stages
* Provide financial assistance for those in need, offering subsidies for our programming and scholarships to reach new audiences and further our vision

The imam

The imam in the middle of the muslim center furor, has been heavily criticized for the following statement he made during an interview in Sept. 2001, shortly after the twin towers were struck:

I wouldn’t say that the United States deserved what happened, but the United States policies were an accessory to the crime that happened,

But for those with an outside view and sober understanding of 20th century American foreign policy (which I am neither condemning nor endorsing here) this is merely stating the obvious. I don’t personally recall similar statements generating much outrage in Europe, at least, and in the rest of the interview Abdul Faisel Rauf actually provides a thoughtful analysis about what happened:

MR. BRADLEY (voiceover): And throughout the Muslim world, there is also strong opposition to America’s foreign policy, particularly in the Middle East, because of its support of Israel and economic sanctions against Iraq.

MR. ABDUL RAUF: It is a reaction against the policies of the U.S. government, politically, where we espouse principles of democracy and human rights and where we ally ourselves with oppressive regimes in many of these countries.

MR. BRADLEY: Are — are — are you in any way suggesting that we in the United States deserved what happened?

MR. ABDUL RAUF: I wouldn’t say that the United States deserved what happened, but the United States policies were an accessory to the crime that happened.

MR. BRADLEY: O.K. You say that we’re an accessory?

MR. ABDUL RAUF: Yes.

MR. BRADLEY: How?

MR. ABDUL RAUF: Because we have been an accessory to a lot of — of innocent lives dying in the world. In fact, it — in the most direct sense, Osama bin Laden is made in the U.S.A.

To which I would like to add the neutral observation that an act of terrorism is also the only war strategy available to a side that does not have the resources to buy their own Daisy Cutters or MOAB’s. Ugly and despicable, yes, but it is a collective failure of humanity that in the 21st century the world still is ugly and despicable.

The two links provided in the beginning of this section provide a lot of information about imam Rauf and his all-American personal history. Ironically, at the moment Rauf is away on a trip to Bahrain with the explicit intent to improve cross-cultural relations and understanding. And not for the first time either:

If one were to hearken back to the halcyon days of the Bush Administration, one would remember that, when Bush adviser Karen Hughes was appointed Undersecretary of State for Public Diplomacy, the Bush Administration saw improving America’s standing among Muslims abroad as a part of its national security strategy. And, as such, Hughes set up listening tours, attended meetings and worked with interfaith groups that — shocking, by today’s Republican standards — included actual Muslims.
One of those people was Imam Feisal Abdul Rauf.

And finally, according to the State Department:

His work on tolerance and religious diversity is well-known and he brings a moderate perspective to foreign audiences on what it’s like to be a practicing Muslim in the United States,” State Department spokesman P. J. Crowley said Tuesday. He added that the department’s public-diplomacy offices “have a long-term relationship with” Rauf – including during the past Bush administration, when the religious leader undertook a similar speaking tour.

The Koran

If you’re interested in (having an opinion about) the Islam you could of course always read the Koran. It’s just a click away because it’s available for free from project Gutenberg in various translations. A search for the word “kill” in one of the Gutenberg texts then yields, for example, among other (more neutral) passages, the following:

And fight for the cause of God against those who fight against you: but commit not the injustice of attacking them first: God loveth not such injustice: And kill them wherever ye shall find them, and eject them from whatever place
they have ejected you; for civil discord is worse than carnage: yet attack them not at the sacred Mosque, unless they attack you therein; but if they attack you, slay them. Such the reward of the infidels.

But if they desist, then verily God is Gracious, Merciful. Fight therefore against them until there be no more civil discord, and the only worship be that of God: but if they desist, then let there be no hostility, save against the wicked.

That doesn’t appear to allow for a first strike against the infidels. That is nice. In Sura VIII.-THE SPOILS1 [XCV.], we find

And call to mind when the unbelievers plotted against thee, to detain thee prisoner, or to kill thee, or to banish thee: They plotted-but God plotted: and of plotters is God the best!

which seems to state that the actual killing is best left to God. And earlier in the same Sura it can be read that God has a mob of bloodthirsty angels on hand, whom he has instructed to

Strike off their heads then, and strike off from them every finger-tip.

So by not striking first and by staying clear of wrathful angels, bloodshed can be avoided? Alas, there is no such luck, for according to Sura IX.1-IMMUNITY [CXIII.]:

Make war upon such of those to whom the Scriptures have been given as believe not in God, or in the last day, and who forbid not that which God and His Apostle have forbidden, and who profess not the profession of the truth, until they pay tribute out of hand, and they be humbled. The Jews say, “Ezra (Ozair) is a son of God”; and the Christians say, “The Messiah is a son of God.” Such the sayings in their mouths! They resemble the saying of the Infidels of old! God do battle with them! How are they misguided!
[..]
Believers! wage war against such of the infidels as are your neighbours, and let them find you rigorous: and know that God is with those who fear him.

It’s a no-win situation. Keeping the zealots out of the city by denying them their center will only add fuel to the fire, for it is also written

But into whatsoever city ye enter, and they receive you not, go your ways out into the streets of the same, and say, Even the very dust of your city, which cleaveth on us, we do wipe off against you: notwithstanding be ye sure of this, that the kingdom of God is come nigh unto you. But I say unto you, that it shall be more tolerable in that day for Sodom, than for that city.

Whoops… That one is actually Jesus sending forth his followers in Luke 10:10-12. It is easy to confuse such passages in the Koran and the new testament (or the old testament, which is even more violent), such as this new testament passage from John 15:6 suggesting infidels be burned:

If a man abide not in me, he is cast forth as a branch, and is withered; and men gather them, and cast them into the fire, and they are burned.

There’s even a similarly scary mob of homicidal angels (Thessalonians 1:7-9):

And to you who are troubled rest with us, when the Lord Jesus shall be revealed from heaven with his mighty angels, In flaming fire taking vengeance on them that know not God, and that obey not the gospel of our Lord Jesus Christ: Who shall be punished with everlasting destruction from the presence of the Lord, and from the glory of his power;

and ambiguous mixed messages, like those found in Luke 9:54-56, closely before the quoted Luke 10 passage, where Jesus disappoints his followers who are eager for destruction.

Which is it going to be? Don’t start fighting unless in defence, or kill all infidels? Both Koran and new testament are schizophrenic on this account, although the aforementioned Geert Wilders has made up his mind. After all, he only saw fit to compare the former book to Mein Kampf, and not the latter.

[update Oct 6, 2010 Some architect’s renderings of the planned building have become available here, see also the picture below:

It may turn out that I was wrong when I stated Park 51 will not be conspicuous or stand out in any way, although (depending on your taste in architecture) this looks an improvement over my expectations. The building is now scheduled to have sixteen floors, not fifteen, and judging from the image it will probably be slightly larger than the building opposite it. Also from the article:

The largest part of the building — four of 16 floors — would be taken up by a sports, fitness and swimming center. Another full floor would be occupied by a child care center and playground. Much of the rest of the building would be occupied by a restaurant, culinary school, artist studios, exhibition space and an auditorium for cultural events. El-Gamal said the idea was to build a facility that will attract neighborhood residents looking for a place to work out, as well as suburban Muslim couples spending “date night” in the city.

And the mosque part?

The building’s prayer space for Muslims — the part of the center that has caused some critics to derisively brand the center the “ground zero mega mosque” — would be located on two levels in the basement.

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